COVID-19 testing, infection and places of contamination in France, a national cross- sectional study, December 2021 (preprint)

Background: This study aimed to describe the use of diagnostic testing for COVID-19 in France until December 2021, the characteristics of people infected, and places of contamination. Methods: Data were collected from the national 2021 Health Barometer cross-sectional study, which was conducted between February and December 2021 and included French-speaking individuals aged 18-85 years old selected through randomly generated landline and mobile phone numbers. Participants were interviewed about COVID-19-like symptoms in the previous 12 months, diagnostic testing for the disease, positive diagnosis for SARS-CoV-2, and the place(s) of contamination. Determinants of diagnostic testing and of infection were studied using univariate and multivariate Poisson regressions. Results: A total of 24,514 persons participated in the study. We estimated that 66.4% [65.0-67.7] of persons had been tested for COVID-19 the last time they experienced COVID-19-like symptoms, and that 9.8% [9.3-10.3] of the population in France - with or without symptoms - had been tested positive. Diagnostic testing was less frequent in men, unemployed persons, and people living alone; it was also less frequent during the first months of the pandemic. The estimated proportion of the population infected was higher in healthcare professionals (PRa: 1.5 [1.3-1.7]), those living in large cities (>=200 000 inhabitants, and Paris area) (1.4 [1.2-1.6]), and in households comprising >3 persons (1.7[1.5-2.0]). It was lower in retired persons (0.8 [0.6-0.97]) and those over 65 years old (0.6 [0.4-0.9]). Almost two-thirds (65.7%) of infected persons declared they knew where they were contaminated; 5.8% [4.5-7.4] reported being contaminated outdoors, 47.9% [44.8-51.0] in unventilated indoor environments, and 43.4% [40.3-46.6] in ventilated indoor environments. Specifically, 51.1% [48.0-54.2] declared they were contaminated at home or in a family of friend’s house, 29.1% [26.4-31.9] at their workplace, 13.9% [11.9-16.1] in a healthcare structure,  and 9.0% [7.4-10.8] in a public eating place (e.g., cafeteria, bar, restaurant). Conclusions: To limit viral spread, preventive actions should preferentially target persons tested least frequently and those at a higher risk of infection. They should also target contamination in households, healthcare structures, and public eating places. Importantly, contamination is most frequent in places where prevention measures are most difficult to implement.

Acceptability of mandatory vaccination against influenza, measles, pertussis and varicella by workers in healthcare facilities: a national cross-sectional study, France, 2019. (preprint)

Background: Vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) aims to protect them and to reduce transmission to susceptible patients. Influenza, measles, pertussis, and varicella vaccinations are recommended but not mandatory for HCW in France. Insufficient vaccine coverage for these diseases in HCW has raised the question of introducing mandatory vaccination. We conducted a survey to estimate acceptability of mandatory vaccination for these four vaccines by HCW working in healthcare facilities (HCF) in France, and to identify associated determinants.Methods: In 2019, we performed a cross-sectional survey of physicians, nurses, midwives and nursing assistants working in HCF in France using a randomised stratified three-stage sampling design (HCF type, ward category, HCW category). Data were collected in face-to-face interviews using a tablet computer. We investigated the possible determinants of acceptability of mandatory vaccination using univariate and multivariate Poisson regressions, and estimated prevalence ratios (PR).Results: A total of 8594 HCW in 167 HCF were included. For measles, pertussis, and varicella, self-reported acceptability of mandatory vaccination (very or quite favourable) was 73.1% [CI95%: 70.9–75.1], 72.1% [69.8–74.3], and 57.5% [54.5–57.7], respectively. Acceptability varied according to i) HCW and ward category for these three vaccinations, ii) age group for measles and pertussis, and iii) sex for varicella. For mandatory influenza vaccination, acceptability was lower (42.7% [40.6–44.9]), and varied greatly between HCW categories (from 77.2% for physicians to 32.0% for nursing assistants).Conclusion: HCW acceptability of mandatory vaccination was high for measles, pertussis and varicella but not as high for influenza. Vaccination for COVID-19 is mandatory for HCW in France. Replication of this study after the end of the COVID-19 crisis would help assess whether the pandemic had an impact on their acceptability of mandatory vaccination, in particular for influenza.

Whole Genome DNA and RNA Sequencing of Whole Blood Elucidates the Genetic Architecture of Gene Expression Underlying a Wide Range of Diseases (preprint)

To create a scientific resource of expression quantitative trail loci (eQTL), we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) using genotypes obtained from whole genome sequencing (WGS) of DNA and gene expression levels from RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) of whole blood in 2622 participants in Framingham Heart Study. We identified 6,778,286 cis-eQTL variant-gene transcript (eGene) pairs at p < 5x10− 8 (2,855,111 unique cis-eQTL variants and 15,982 unique eGenes) and 1,469,754 trans-eQTL variant-eGene pairs at p < 1e-12 (526,056 unique trans-eQTL variants and 7,233 unique eGenes). In addition, 442,379 cis-eQTL variants were associated with expression of 1518 long non-protein coding RNAs (lncRNAs). Gene Ontology (GO) analyses revealed that the top GO terms for cis-eGenes are enriched for immune functions (FDR < 0.05). The cis-eQTL variants are enriched for SNPs reported to be associated with 815 traits in prior GWAS, including cardiovascular disease risk factors. As proof of concept, we used this eQTL resource in conjunction with genetic variants from public GWAS databases in causal inference testing (e.g., COVID-19 severity). After Bonferroni correction, Mendelian randomization analyses identified putative causal associations of 60 eGenes with systolic blood pressure, 13 genes with coronary artery disease, and seven genes with COVID-19 severity. This study created a comprehensive eQTL resource via BioData Catalyst that will be made available to the scientific community. This will advance understanding of the genetic architecture of gene expression underlying a wide range of diseases.

Elucidating the genetic architecture of DNA methylation to identify promising molecular mechanisms of disease (preprint)

DNA methylation commonly occurs at cytosine-phosphate-guanine sites (CpGs) that can serve as biomarkers for many diseases. We analyzed whole genome sequencing data to identify DNA methylation quantitative trait loci (mQTLs) in 4,126 Framingham Heart Study participants. Our mQTL mapping identified 94,362,817 cis -mQTLvariant-CpG pairs (for 210,156 unique autosomal CpGs) at P <1e-7 and 33,572,145 trans -mQTL variant-CpG pairs (for 213,606 unique autosomal CpGs) at P <1e-14. Using cis -mQTL variants for 1,258 CpGs associated with seven cardiovascular disease risk factors, we found 104 unique CpGs that colocalized with at least one cardiovascular disease trait. For example, cg11554650 ( PPP1R18 ) colocalized with type 2 diabetes, driven by a single nucleotide polymorphism (rs2516396). We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis and demonstrated 58 putatively causal relations of CVD risk factor-associated CpGs to one or more risk factors (e.g., cg05337441 [ APOB ] with LDL; MR P =1.2e-99, and 17 causal associations with coronary artery disease (e.g. cg08129017 [ SREBF1 ] with coronary artery disease; MR P =5e-13). We also showed that three CpGs, e.g., cg14893161 ( PM20D1 ), are putatively causally associated with COVID-19 severity. To assist in future analyses of the role of DNA methylation in disease pathogenesis, we have posted a comprehensive summary data set in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute’s BioData Catalyst.

Serious hospital events following symptomatic infection with Sars-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants: an exposed-unexposed cohort study in December 2021 from the COVID-19 surveillance databases in France (preprint)

Background: A rapid increase in incidence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in France in December 2021, while the Delta variant was prevailing since July 2021. Aim: To determine whether the risk of occurrence of a serious hospital event in adults following symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection differs for Omicron versus Delta. Methods: A retrospective cohort study from 06/12/2021 to 07/01/2022. The outcome was a serious hospital event (admission to intensive care unit OR admission to critical care unit OR death). Omicron and Delta symptomatic cases were matched on the week of virological diagnosis and on age. Risk was adjusted for age, sex, vaccination status, presence of comorbidity and region of residence using Cox proportional-hazards model. Results: 149,064 cases were included of which 497 had a serious hospital event (447 in the Delta arm, 50 in the Omicron arm). The risk of serious event was lower among Omicron versus Delta cases (adjusted Hazard Ratio, aHR=0.13 CI95 0.09-0.18 in 18 to 79 yo, aHR=0.30 CI95 0.17-0.54 in 80+ yo). The risk increased sharply with age and was lower in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated, without interaction between variant and vaccination status (aHR=0.15 CI95 0.11-0.19 for 18-79 yo with primary vaccination versus unvaccinated), was higher in cases with comorbidities (aHR = 3.70 CI95 2.66-5.13 fort 18-79 yo with very-high-risk comorbidity versus no comorbidity) and in males. Conclusion: This study confirms the lower severity of Omicron. The vaccine protection is essential in the elderly as they have a high risk of severe hospital events following infection with Omicron, even if much this risk is lower than with Delta.

Reactive vaccination of workplaces and schools against COVID-19 (preprint)

As vaccination against COVID-19 stalls in some countries, increased accessibility and more adaptive approaches may be useful to keep the epidemic under control. Here we study the impact of reactive vaccination targeting schools and workplaces where cases have been detected, with an agent-based model accounting for COVID-19 natural history, vaccine characteristics, individuals' demography and behaviour and social distancing. We study epidemic scenarios ranging from sustained spread to flare-up of cases, and we consider reactive vaccination alone and in combination with mass vaccination. With the same number of doses, reactive vaccination reduces cases more than non-reactive approaches, but may require concentrating a high number of doses over a short time in case of sustained spread. In case of flare-ups, quick implementation of reactive vaccination supported by enhanced test-trace-isolate practices would limit further spread. These results provide key information to promote an adaptive vaccination plan in the months to come.

Association between the COVID-19 pandemic and pertussis in France using multiple nationwide data sources (preprint)

Background: Interventions to mitigate coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic may impact other respiratory diseases such as pertussis. We aimed to study the course of pertussis in France over an 8-year period and its association with COVID-19 mitigation strategies, using multiple nationwide data sources. Methods: We analyzed the number of French pertussis cases between 2013 and 2020, using the PCR test results from nationwide outpatient laboratories (Source 1) and the pediatric network of 41 hospitals (Source 2), and using the reports of an office-based pediatric national network (Source 3). We conducted a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series analysis, relying on negative binomial regression models. The models accounted for seasonality, longterm cycles, and secular trend, and included a binary variable for the first national lockdown (ordered on March 16, 2021). Results: We identified 19,039 cases of pertussis from the three data sources during the study period. There was a significant decrease of pertussis cases following the implementation of mitigation measures, with adjusted incidence rate ratios of 0.102 (95% CI 0.040-0.256) and 0.216 (95% CI 0.071-0.656) for Source 1 and Source 2, respectively. The association was confirmed in Source 3 (median of 1 [IQR 0-2] vs. 0 [IQR 0-0] pertussis cases per month before and after lockdown, respectively, p=0.0048). Conclusion: The drastic reduction of outpatient and hospitalized cases of pertussis strongly suggests an impact of COVID-19 mitigation measures and their consequences on pertussis epidemiology. Pertussis vaccination recommendations should be carefully followed, and disease monitoring should be continued to detect any resurgence after relaxation of mitigation measures.

Short Telomeres and a T-Cell Shortfall in COVID-19: The Aging Effect (preprint)

The slow pace of global vaccination and the rapid emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants suggest recurrent waves of COVID-19 in coming years. Therefore, understanding why deaths from COVID-19 are highly concentrated among older adults is essential for global health. Severe COVID-19 T-cell lymphopenia is more common among older adults, and it entails poor prognosis. Much about the primary etiology of this form of lymphopenia remains unknown, but regardless of its causes, offsetting the decline in T-cell count during SARS-CoV-2 infection demands fast and massive T-cell clonal expansion, which is telomere length (TL)-dependent. We have built a model that captures the effect of age-dependent TL shortening in hematopoietic cells and its effect on T-cell clonal expansion capacity. The model shows that an individual with average hematopoietic cell TL (HCTL) at age twenty years maintains maximal T-cell clonal expansion capacity until the 6th decade of life when this capacity plummets by more than 90% over the next ten years. The collapse coincides with the steep increase in COVID-19 mortality with age. HCTL metrics may thus explain the vulnerability of older adults to COVID-19. That said, the wide inter-individual variation in HCTL across the general population means that some younger adults with inherently short HCTL might be at risk of severe COVID-19 lymphopenia and mortality from the disease. Significance StatementDeclining immunity with advancing age is a general explanation for the increased mortality from COVID-19 among older adults. This mortality far exceeds that from viral illnesses such as the seasonal influenza, and it thus requires specific explanations. One of these might be diminished ability with age to offset the development of severe T-cell lymphopenia (a low T-cell count in the blood) that often complicates COVID-19. We constructed a model showing that age-dependent shortening of telomeres might constrain the ability of T-cells of some older COVID-19 patients to undertake the massive proliferation required to clear the virus that causes the infection. The model predicts that individuals with short telomeres, principally seniors, might be at a higher risk of death from COVID-19.

Adherence and sustainability of interventions informing optimal control against COVID-19 pandemic (preprint)

After one year of stop-and-go COVID-19 mitigation, some European countries still experience sustained viral circulation due to the B.1.1.7 variant. As the prospect of phasing out this stage through vaccination draws closer, it is critical to balance the efficacy of long-lasting interventions and their impact on the quality of life. Focusing on the current situation in France, we show that moderate interventions require a much longer time to achieve the same result as high intensity lockdowns, with the additional risk of deteriorating control as adherence wanes. Integrating intensity and duration of social distancing in a data-driven "distress" index, we show that shorter strict lockdowns are largely more performant than longer moderate lockdowns, for similar intermediate distress and infringement on individual freedom. Our study shows that favoring milder interventions over more stringent short approaches on the basis of perceived acceptability could be detrimental in the long term, especially with waning adherence.

Mendelian randomisation identifies alternative splicing of the FAS death receptor as a mediator of severe COVID-19 (preprint)

Severe COVID-19 is characterised by immunopathology and epithelial injury. Proteomic studies have identified circulating proteins that are biomarkers of severe COVID-19, but cannot distinguish correlation from causation. To address this, we performed Mendelian randomisation (MR) to identify proteins that mediate severe COVID-19. Using protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) data from the SCALLOP consortium, involving meta-analysis of up to 26,494 individuals, and COVID-19 genome-wide association data from the Host Genetics Initiative, we performed MR for 157 COVID-19 severity protein biomarkers. We identified significant MR results for five proteins: FAS, TNFRSF10A, CCL2, EPHB4 and LGALS9. Further evaluation of these candidates using sensitivity analyses and colocalization testing provided strong evidence to implicate the apoptosis-associated cytokine receptor FAS as a causal mediator of severe COVID-19. This effect was specific to severe disease. Using RNA-seq data from 4,778 individuals, we demonstrate that the pQTL at the FAS locus results from genetically influenced alternate splicing causing skipping of exon 6. We show that the risk allele for very severe COVID-19 increases the proportion of transcripts lacking exon 6, and thereby increases soluble FAS. Soluble FAS acts as a decoy receptor for FAS-ligand, inhibiting apoptosis induced through membrane-bound FAS. In summary, we demonstrate a novel genetic mechanism that contributes to risk of severe of COVID-19, highlighting a pathway that may be a promising therapeutic target.

Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France (preprint)

Facing B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a 2-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalizations to plateau, by decreasing transmission of the historical strain while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalizations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.

Monitoring the proportion infected by SARS-CoV-2 from age-stratified hospitalisation and serological data (preprint)

BackgroundRegional monitoring of the proportion infected by SARS-CoV-2 is important to guide local management of the epidemic, but is difficult in the absence of regular nationwide serosurveys. MethodsWe developed a method to reconstruct in real-time the proportion infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the proportion of infections being detected from the joint analysis of age-stratified seroprevalence, hospitalisation and case data. We applied our approach to the 13 French metropolitan regions. FindingsWe estimate that 5.7% [5.1%-6.4%] of adults in metropolitan France had been infected by SARS-CoV-2 by May 2020. This proportion remained stable until August and increased to 12.6% [11.2%-14.3%] by the end of November. With 23.8% [21.2%-26.8%] infected in the Paris region compared to 4.0% [3.5% - 4.6%] in Brittany, regional variations remained large (Coefficient of Variation CV: 0.53) although less so than in May (CV: 0.74). The proportion infected was twice higher (17.6% [13.4%-22.7%]) in 20-49 y.o. than in 50+ y.o (8.0% [5.7% - 11.5%]). Forty percent [33.7% - 45.4%] of infections in adults were detected in June-August compared to 55.7% [48.7% - 63.1%] in September-November. Our method correctly predicted seroprevalence in 11 regions in which only hospitalisation data were used. InterpretationIn the absence of contemporary serosurvey, our real-time monitoring indicates that the proportion infected by SARS-CoV-2 may be above 20% in some French regions. FundingEU RECOVER, ANR, Fondation pour la Recherche Medicale, Inserm.

Ready for a BASE jump? Do not neglect SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization and fatality risks in the middle-aged adult population. (preprint)

Seroprevalence results coupled with surveillance data were used to estimate the SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalization (IHR) and infection fatality ratios (IFR) in France. IHR and IFR were dramatically high in the very elderly (80-90 years: IHR: 30%, IFR: 11%), but also substantial in middle-aged adults (40-50 years: IHR: 1.2%, IFR: 0.05%).

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in France: results from nationwide serological surveillance (preprint)

BackgroundAssessment of cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections is critical for monitoring the course and the extent of the epidemic. As asymptomatic or mild cases were typically not captured by surveillance data in France, we implemented nationwide serological surveillance. We present estimates for prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the French population and the proportion of infected individuals who developed potentially protective neutralizing antibodies throughout the first epidemic wave. MethodsWe performed serial cross-sectional sampling of residual sera over three periods: prior to (9-15 March), during (6-12 April) and following (11-17 May) a nationwide lockdown. Each sample was tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies targeting the Nucleoprotein and Spike using two Luciferase-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assays, and for neutralising antibodies using a pseudo-neutralisation assay. We fitted a general linear mixed model of seropositivity in a Bayesian framework to derive prevalence estimates stratified by age, sex and region. FindingsIn total, sera from 11 021 individuals were analysed. Nationwide seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was estimated at 0.41% [0.05-0.88] mid-March, 4.14% [3.31-4.99] mid-April and 4.93% [4.02-5.89] mid-May. Approximately 70% of seropositive individuals had detectable neutralising antibodies. Seroprevalence was higher in regions where circulation occurred earlier and was more intense. Seroprevalence was lowest in children under 10 years of age (2.72% [1.10-4.87]). InterpretationSeroprevalence estimates confirm that the nationwide lockdown substantially curbed transmission and that the vast majority of the French population remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. Low seroprevalence in school age children suggests limited susceptibility and/or transmissibility in this age group. Our results show a clear picture of the progression of the first epidemic wave and provide a framework to inform the ongoing public health response as viral transmission is picking up again in France and globally. FundingSante publique France.

A Mechanism for Severity of Disease in Older Patients with COVID-19: The Nexus between Telomere Length and Lymphopenia (preprint)

Background: Lymphopenia due to a plummeting T-cell count is a major feature of severe COVID-19. T-cell proliferation is telomere length (TL)-dependent and TL shortens with age. Older persons are disproportionally affected by severe COVID-19, and we hypothesized that those with short TL have less capacity to mount an adequate T-cell proliferative response to SARS-CoV-2. This hypothesis predicts that among older patients with COVID-19, shorter telomeres of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) will be associated with a lower lymphocyte count. Methods: Our sample comprised 17 COVID-19 and 21 non-COVID-19 patients, aged 87(8) (mean(SD)) and 87 (9) years, respectively. We measured TL by the Telomere Shortest Length Assay, a novel method that measures and tallies the short telomeres directly relevant to telomere-mediated biological processes. The primary analysis quantified TL as the proportion of telomeres shorter than 2 kilobases. For comparison, we also quantified TL by Southern blotting, which measures the mean length of telomeres. Results: Lymphocyte count (109/L) was 0.91 (0.42) in COVID-19 patients and 1.50(0.50) in non-COVID-19 patients (P < 0.001). In COVID-19 patients, but not in non-COVID-19 patients, lymphocyte count was inversely correlated with the proportion of telomeres shorter than 2 kilobases (P = 0.005) and positively correlated with the mean of telomeres measured by TeSLA (P = 0.03). Lymphocyte counts showed no statistically significant correlations with Southern blotting results in COVID-19 or non-COVID-19 patients. Conclusions: These results support the hypothesis that a compromised TL-dependent T-cell proliferative response contributes to lymphopenia and the resulting disproportionate severity of COVID-19 among old adults. We infer that infection with SARS-CoV-2 uncovers the limits of the TL reserves of older persons.

Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France (preprint)

France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17th March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find 2.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.53% die, ranging from 0.001% in those <20y to 8.3% in those >80y. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 3.3 to 0.5 (84% reduction). By 11 May, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 3.7 million (range: 2.3-6.7) people, 5.7% of the population, will have been infected. Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.